New Zealand fiscal policy

The 20/7 series

A set of analytical notes on the proposed shift from direct taxation (income and company tax) toward a universal consumption base with a partial GST recovery rule—written for readers who follow public finance and political trade-offs closely.

The common thread across these pages is the same design question: how revenue, equity, and administration change when the state stops taxing declared income and profit and instead captures flow through a 20% GST with a 65% recovery rate on business inputs—effectively a 7% operational wedge—while aiming for a stable fiscal surplus.

Contents

  1. Executive summary
    Blueprint in brief: mechanics, household and business effects, mitigations, and implementation horizon.
  2. Plain-language explainer
    Accessible walk-through of velocity-based taxation and the 65% recovery rule for a general policy audience.
  3. Conceptual guide
    From “productivity brake” to “velocity engine,” with tables on incentives and fiscal arithmetic.
  4. Sectoral impact assessment
    Exporters, services, border equalisation, and the role of oversight bodies under the pivot.
  5. Risk management framework
    Cascading prices, integration risk, social licence, and phased transition milestones.
  6. Policy essay
    Argument-led overview: paycheck effects, administration, and implementation narrative.
  7. Evaluative report
    Long-form strategic analysis: Rogernomics lineage, mechanics, export paradox, equity, household tables, risks, and roadmap verdict.